Supply and demand, the basic principle we all earned in Econ 101, still applies in the real world. Right now, using Dana Point as an example, and the “Big Four” neighborhoods as a snapshot, you’ll notice that there are twelve (12) homes in escrow, but only seven (7) available for sale. That’s low inventory.

Now, with uncertainties in the market (war, BP oil spill, foreclosures), one could argue that demand is also low, or in balance with supply. From an agent’s perspective, we can tell you that those seven available listings are NOT enough of a selection for the buyers we are working with currently, who are looking for a single level home in one of these same four neighborhoods in Dana Point. Low inventory again – and this same condition exists in most other coastal cities in Orange County.

Buyers: is this summer a good time to buy? Yes, interest rates are phenomenally low….under 5%! Prices are also way, way down from their 2005 peaks – in some cases, home prices in Dana Point and South Orange County are down 30-40% from their previous highs. Low prices, and low interest rates.

Sellers: does this mean that now is a bad time to sell? Not necessarily. Remember, if you are planning to buy down, buy laterally, or buy up, there really isn’t a bad time to sell since you are also buying simultaneously. For most families, a sell-and-buy event can be thought of as simply moving one’s mortgage from one house to another (don’t forget the closing costs, though).

Want more insight? We’re out there “in the trenches” every day! Call us at (949) 240-5892, or contact us via email.

Despite some ongoing concern about the US housing market, especially in commercial real estate, I have noticed an uptick in interest here in Orange County, based upon closed sales, and in particular, upon inquiries by first-time and move-up buyers in the lower price ranges. Inventory is dropping.

Prices have stabilized over the summer in most prices. For single family homes in the $300-500,000 range, prices have actually risen off their bottoms! But the lower prices, combined with still low mortgage interest rates, continue to offer buyers improved affordability and much lower monthly payments.

Multiple offers are common when homes are priced right, as measured by condition and comparable properties. Equity sellers are affected, of course, by competing short sales and REO’s, but buyers prefer “traditional” sales when possible, and will pay a premium for the confidence that can be had by buying from a seller not in distress.

Call me right now at (949) 240-5892. It’s a great time to purchase a rental property, your first home, or an extra condo for that child just graduated from college. Move-up buyers also benefit in a market such as this…keep your current home, convert it to a rental, and purchase that next California dream home!

Some buyers face a dilemma: buy now, while prices are low, and interest rates are historically low, or wait to see if prices will fall further. We’ve just had two of our listings sell at or above full price, each within one week!

Could this be the much awaited bottom in the Orange County real estate market?

Restructuring: part one of the plan makes available $75 billion of U.S. Treasury funds to restructure the loans of homeowners who are behind, or likely to fall behind, on their mortgage payments. The intent is for lenders to lower the borrower’s monthly payment to 31% of the borrower’s monthly gross income. This does not imply a principal reduction, but could include a reduction in interest rate.

This plan does not apply to investors, or those of us with jumbo mortgages, and the Treasury will not subsidize any mortgage adjustments that require an interest rate below 2% to get to the aforementioned 31% threshold.

Refinancing: the second part of the plan helps homeowners refinance into cheaper loans even if the homeowner is “upside down” on his mortgage. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the quasi-government housing agencies, will refinance up to 105% of the value of the homes already held or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie.

Recapitalizing: part three adds $200B to the money allocated to Fannie and Freddie in order to keep all this going.

Conclusion: does any of this directly or indirectly affect Danawoods? The answer is yet to be seen. Danawoods has been relatively immune to foreclosures and short payoffs, as compared with other neighborhoods. Low turnover of Danawoods homes in recent years means fewer of us bought our homes near the top of the market. That’s a good thing! Some of us may be able to take advantage of the new bailout plan, which is supposed to be available beginning March 4th, when additional details are also supposed to be available.

For anyone wishing to get a headstart – give us a call or drop us an email. We can help you plan ahead, assist you with valuation on your home, and if you need one, provide a referral to a trustworthy local lender affiliated with Wells Fargo.

Just this past Friday, for the first time, I received an announcement via email for a mortgage, with the interest rate quoted at 4.375% with a typical 1-point origination fee (4.5% APR). That rate applies to a conforming loan under $417,000; higher rates apply to larger mortgage amounts.

Four-something for a 30-year fixed? That is a benchmark of historic proportion! It could be the beginning of the much needed bottom in Orange County housing prices, if the opportunity for rates like those lasts awhile, and if lenders regain their footing in the market.

It’s condo time! Investors, first-time buyers, and parents who want their kids to be nearby after graduating high school or college (but not THAT nearby…), now might be a great time to make an investment in the future.

Owner-occupied (think: the kids) purchases can be made with very little downpayment. VA and FHA-insured loans are available with only a small investment, but are accompanied by higher monthly payments, of course.

But with a larger downpayment and a conventional mortgage, break-even cash flow is closer to reality than any time in a decade.

Here’s another thought, for those of you who are inclined towards single family homes rather than condos: 20 percent downpayment will buy a single family residence in Orange County, and still get under the magic conforming figure of $417,000 to get those great 4.x% loans. And rates are still extremely low for loans above $417,000….lower than any time in the past few years.

Have we piqued your “interest?” Rates in the “fours” won’t last forever. What an opportunity! Call us at (949) 240-5892, or send us an email, and let’s start strategizing and building a real estate portfolio!

The second home is in Aliso Viejo, also detached, priced at $1,049,000, 5 bedrooms, 4 baths, over 3000 square feet with unbelievable view of canyon and sunsets! This beautiful home is a short sale, and could be a great buy for one lucky buyer.

Interest rates dropped like a stone this week, and are expected to fall further this month. Projections, from those who make them, have included mortgage interest rates falling to 4.5%; some of these admittedly optimistic pundits have equated this dramatic reduction in rates to a rebound in the real estate market in 2009. Although no one knows for sure what will happen next year, to some degree, increased optimism can only help.

Opinion is mixed as to whether or not the new administration and its policies will have a significant impact on the economy. If and when it does, everyone agrees that even with fast action, the changes to our nation’s financial condition will be gradual. The U.S. economy is more like a cruise ship than a speedboat – turning things around is a slow process, not a one-day event.

But with all this uncertainty, did you know that in Orange County there are 217 homes in escrow right now priced above $1,000,000, including 55 of these priced above $2,000,000? In a high-priced market, such as ours in Orange County, these numbers admittedly don’t impress. But…you may not realize, per the Southern California MLS, compiled by us today, that there are 3,639 properties in escrow priced under $1 million! Now that is an impressive number, and one worth highlighting. 3,639 homes in escrow….although fewer than in the market a few years ago, that’s still a surprising figure.

Picking a bottom in the market is often considered to be a “fool’s game”. If you think that we’re close, now might be the time to begin accumulating real estate again. Call us at (949) 240-5892, or send us email us to discuss your plans!

Our banks have become home owners! As you know, our local Orange County real estate market is driven by bank foreclosures. But did you know that the other major factor driving down real estate prices right now is real estate “short sales?”

So what on earth is a short sale? A short sale, or “short payoff”, is a negotiated settlement between lender and borrower that allows a property to sell without the normal requirement for the mortgage loan(s) to be paid in full. If you are having trouble making your mortgage payments, a short sale may be a viable alternative to foreclosure.

Here’s a practical example: a buyer purchases a home somewhere in Orange County back in late 2005 for $1 million. The buyer also takes advantage of the lenient and generous loan terms available, and borrows $950,000 with only a $50,000 downpayment. Let’s now assume that the price of the home has corrected 25%, and that the home is now worth $750,000. But in order to sell this home, the owner must now contribute more than $200,000 in cash to bridge the difference between what the home is worth and what is owed to the bank.

Such a large out-of-pocket expense is not so easy a task for most people, especially in a slowing business environment. And unfortunately, many homeowners who can afford to pay off their loan choose not to do so, and let their properties go to foreclosure. That’s where the negotiated short payoff fits into the picture. Rather than foreclosure, the property is sold through conventional means subject to the lender accepting less than the full amount owed. Why would a lender cooperate? Based upon current market values, upon genuine hardship of the borrower, and the inevitability of foreclosure, the bank will often cooperate with a borrower and accept a short payoff. By doing so, the bank avoids becoming a home owner. We have always asserted that banks lose more money when they foreclose and resell a home, than when they accept a reasonable short sale. The seller avoids a foreclosure, the neighborhood avoids yet another “fire sale”, and perhaps, the market rebounds faster without so many bank foreclosures.

We have a great deal of experience with negotiation of short sales, dating back to the Orange County real estate market correction of the early ‘90’s. Call us, or contact us via email, for a confidential consultation to determine if a short sale is the best strategy for your individual situation.

Earlier in the year, the investment firm, Bear Stearns, was “bailed out” through actions of the Federal Reserve Bank and the U.S. Treasury Department. More recently, and with direct impact upon our real estate market, the Federal Government took control of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are (were) what is (was) known as GSE’s, or governement sponsored entities. In other words, these GSE’s behaved like private corporations (badly), but were implicitly backed up by the strength and credit of our Federal Government. So the new owners of Fannie and Freddie are, you guessed it, you and us!

This week brought even more turmoil, and finally, some “resolution” as well, when the Treasury Secretary announced the planned formation of a government entity to purchase and process bad loans, similar to the Resolution Trust Corporation that was formed after the savings & loan debacle in the 1980’s. How does all of this relatively bad news all affect your home’s value?

Inventory of homes for sale on the market is high, but what’s worse, the inventory is dominated by bank-owned foreclosures and properties subject to lender short-payoff (more on “short pays” in a later column). Despite the argument that Uncle Sam (all of us, again) should not be in the business of buying bad debts from dumb lenders, the efficient disposition of these loans and properties should help to lessen their impact on our residential resale market in Orange County. The sooner we get back to a “normal” market of buyers and sellers, helped by lenders who happily make loans to qualified purchasers, the better off we will all be as homeowners.